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‘Conservative’ BTC supply shock metric now says Bitcoin should cost at least $55K

Bitcoin (BTC) should cost at least $55,000 per coin based on one metric measuring its so-called “supply shock.”

In a tweet on Sep. 5, analyst Willy Woo highlighted what he added is a “conservative” worth estimate for BTC/USD.

Bitcoin worth performs catch-up with metrics

While Bitcoin has nonetheless not established $50,000 as agency assist, on-chain metrics have been rather more firmly bullish for a while.

Now, the so-called “supply shock valuation model” has joined them, giving a conservative worth estimate of $55,000.

Supply shock is just the unavailable BTC supply divided by the out there BTC supply. This goes deeper than at first look, as Woo makes use of it to successfully “wave a magic wand and gauge the intent of investors before the bids and offers are even placed.”

“In this view of demand and supply, an investor who has no intention to sell is on the demand side while an investor who is willing to sell is on the supply side,” he defined in a weblog submit final month.

The valuation mannequin moreover makes use of an algorithm to match comparable supply and demand conditions to now, thus producing a good worth estimate.

“It’s conservative as one of the SS metrics, exchange SS, is now above all-time-high so no look-back is possible,” Woo acknowledged within the tweet, referring to the ratio of cash in chilly storage in comparison with on exchanges being at report ranges.

The accompanying chart captures when BTC worth moved with and with none shifts in investor intent.

Bitcoin supply shock valuation mannequin. Source: Willy Woo/ Twitter

$50,000 first hurdle for bulls

Bitcoin supply shock is an oft-used phrase within the present market because of 2021 being the yr after a block subsidy halving occasion.

Related: More like ‘shock-to-flow’ — BTC worth hits bull set off as thriller patrons scoop up supply

With miners now unlocking simply 6.25 BTC per block, to this point, Bitcoin has behaved broadly equally to earlier post-halving years — 2013 and 2017.

The conservative $55,000 minimal goal nonetheless stays above one other set of month-to-month shut minimums from analyst PlanB, who guesses that September may have a minimal month-to-month shut of $43,000.

Thereafter, nonetheless, upside resumes in earnest, with Bitcoin closing out 2021 on at least $135,000.

At the time of writing, BTC/USD traded at $50,200, having stayed in a decent vary all through the weekend.

BTC/USD 1-day candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView