African economists sound the alarm over a looming and certain catastrophic decreasing of commerce volumes between the continent and its warring companions if Russia’s broadly condemned incursion into Ukraine is not short-lived.
But these beneficial properties are on the verge of eroding rapidly, analysts fear, signaling a extreme disruption in Africa’s food circumstances if Russia’s navy operation in Ukraine persists.
‘Three months away from starvation’
Parts of Africa could be plunged into starvation in as quick as three months if Russia’s invasion of Ukraine lingers, says Wandile Sihlobo, the Chief Economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa.
“In the short term, between now and three months, the conflict will affect food supply primarily from a pricing perspective,” Sihlobo informed CNN.
“As net importers of products like wheat, which influences bread and cereals, sunflower oil and maize, African countries are fairly exposed on some of these supplies that are coming out of Russia and Ukraine. There will be challenges if the war continues for more than three months — because ordinarily, countries usually keep stock of supplies for three to five months.”
“Food prices are already high now. If the war stretches, there will be millions of Africans that will be in hunger. We are already expecting millions of people to be in hunger in the areas affected by the drought, so the ongoing conflict will worsen that,” he mentioned.
Africa’s greatest economies similar to Nigeria, Egypt, South Africa, Algeria, and Kenya are main importers of Russia’s agricultural exports, placing them susceptible to additional spikes in food costs if commerce is disrupted.
Sihlobo provides that sanctions focused at Russia could additionally complicate Africa’s exports.
“Africa exports fruits and vegetables to Russia and Ukraine. Seven percent of South Arica’s citrus goes to Russia, 14 percent of South Africa’s apples and pears goes to Russia. Egypt and Tunisia also export fruits and vegetables to Russia. The challenge with all of these countries is that with all of the sanctions that are placed on Russia by the US and European countries, it influences the financial services sector… even if the logistics will not be immediately affected, it will disrupt the payment system to all of the exporting countries to Russia,” he informed CNN.
Taking sides on the battle
“There will be significant pressure from a multilateral relations point of view as African countries may be forced to take a position on the conflict that is happening between Russia and Ukraine, and that may either adversely or positively affect the relationship between Africa and Russia going forward,” Hadebe says.
For Russian tutorial, Irina Filatova, taking sides will not profit Africa.
“It won’t be in Africa’s benefit to take sides. I think that Africa can try to remain neutral,” mentioned Filatova, who specializes in Russian and African historical past.
Beyond agriculture, Russia is increasing its affect in African states troubled with insurgency by offering various navy options from these supplied by its Western counterparts, which are sometimes decided by human rights concerns.
However, Russia has denied hyperlinks to personal navy contractors similar to the Wagner Group, which is accused of the abuses.
Hadebe informed CNN that arms commerce is “one of the key features that have defined the trade relationship between Russia and Africa.”
“Russia is the largest exporter of weapons to sub-Saharan Africa in particular.”
According to Filatova, Russia’s prospects of doubling down on its pursuits in Africa could also be increased in the aftermath of the Ukraine war.
“Russia will be much more interested in maintaining relations with African countries than it was until now… It has already started to develop these relations but in the situation of the global isolation by the western world, it will definitely try to maintain relations with Africa,” she informed CNN.